FW1 - Mental Imagery
FW10-SECTOR RATING GUIDE
Look at the map:
294 days before opening.
The sector rating guide is based on the forecasts about the world situation in 2030. It covers 20 main sectors. Taking in account the expected advances in knowledge, it enables you to have a rough appreciation about the future of these sectors.
Our purpose is to stimulate your creativity. You have to get your business idea by the end of this course!
lesson: 0,5 hour
External readings: 14,5 hours
Do it yourself: 0
Total: 15 hours
Our objectives are:
-to provide you with a simple and easy tool in order to forecast the future of each sector.
-To give you some knowledge's about the real content of each sector.
-To stimulate your creativity
Keep in mind that by the end of this course you should have your business idea. It's not worth to go further if you have not got it.
This practical guide is not dedicated to institutional investors such as bank and very large corporate's. It is dedicated to small business like yours.
Consequently, our Rating takes mainly in account global trends and some specific conditions.
11-Global trends :
1-The global trends take in account the elevation of the GDP per capita.
As we have learned in the economic module, it means that we shall observe:
-The fast growth of services and trade.
-The unchanged relative situation of the secondary industry.
-The relative decrease of the primary sector.
2-The global trends take also in account a fast growth in education.
It could have heavy consequences on the future consumption of goods and services. Many empirical observations show a new evolution based on a distinction between spiritual goods and material goods.
-Material goods satisfy physiological or basic requirements: Eating, drinking , housing, moving and so on.
-Spiritual goods satisfy Reason, Ethics, or Esthetics: It can be a book, a fine painting, a music festival, and any increase in knowledge and Ethics.
This distinction does not correspond to the primary, secondary and tertiary goods that we have just examined above: For example, a Japanese bunch of flowers belongs to the primary good (horticulture) but is nevertheless a spiritual good because it satisfies mainly Esthetics and meditation. On the contrary, an X movie although it belongs to the tertiary goods is nevertheless a material good because it only satisfies basic instincts.
Considering these definitions, I have observed a relationship between the level of education and the proportion of spiritual goods into the final goods: Educated people consume more spiritual goods than uneducated who consume mainly material goods.
For example, let's suppose two categories of people having the same given high income: People with low education will consume furniture's, appliances, yacht, luxurious cars, noisy music. With the same income, high educated people will save much more and consume antiques, books, library, museums, classical music, cultural adventures and so on.
Consequently for any given income, the quantity of spiritual goods consumed increases according to the rise in education.
With the rise in education, it means that we shall observe:
-The fast growth of educational, esthetical and ethical goods and services.
-A rapid decrease of material goods such as cars, noisy engines, fast food, bad clothes, basic requirements and so on.
12-Specifics conditions fitted to a small business
-The capital required: We do not take in account some interesting sectors like space exploration, development of new aircrafts and so on. Of course you could act like a subcontractor to the large companies involved in these business but it's not possible to focus on such expectations.
The same observation applies to power sector because it implies huge investments
-The state of the Research and Development: Some new sectors could emerge in the next decades. As our horizon is 2030, we only focus on the sectors which are already identified today.
-The openness to the market: We do not recommend to invest in sectors that will remain regulated by the States. For example, we do not take in account the weaponry sector. Nevertheless, I do not ignore that the Defense department more and more calls for small applicants in some sensitive domains:
It's difficult to weight each condition. It means that the rating reflects a global appreciation rather than a mathematical notation.
Each sector is rated with stars.
-Five blue stars: ***** mean the best possible expectations.
-Four blue stars: **** mean very good expectations.
-Three blue stars: *** mean good expectations.
-Two blue stars: ** mean acceptable expectations.
-One blue star: * mean that it is worth to invest but you can meet some hurdles.
-One to five red stars: * mean inversely that we do not recommend to invest in this sector.
A + or a - added to the stars introduces a slight differentiation between sectors with the same number of stars.
Education is a world challenge: In poor countries, the bulk of young people will far exceed the financial and human capacities of traditional education. School enrollments will decline and the number of illiterates will grow up. In developed countries, despite large financial resources, the traditional education gives more and more bad results.
The cause of this situation is the following: Among most all-human activities, education is one, which has never taken advantage from technical progress. We teach and we learn nowadays as in Socrates century. People have to meet in a single place, on a rigid time schedule, and to follow always the same out-dated content.
This traditional system needs highly paid faculty and brick and mortars requiring large investments. The entire government budgets in poor countries would not be sufficient to provide education for an increasing amount of young people. It means that the public approach is going to bankrupt and that the sector will be largely opened to the private sectors in the next years.
Fortunately, with the Internet , new tools and methods are available. Consequently, everybody expect a huge development of this sector. Beside the child education, the long life training will be developed too. As the investments are not heavy, this sector is a new el dorado for new biz investors.
World statistics have registered about 630 millions of international tourists in 1999. With the current trend, you can easily expect about 1,3 billion by 2010.
It means huge investments in hotels, sea resorts, cultural tourism an so on. What is more, this sector is adapted to small investors and I could state that every body, whatever the money he has, and whereby he lives, should be able to start a biz tourism in the next years.
What is more, remember that thanks to automation, leisure will dominate in the most advanced countries: Japan, Australia, North America and the Scandinavian countries.
3-Services for aged: *****-
Of course, service for aged will represent a growing market: Nurse, house for retired and so on. It could be profitable but beware of the regulations. What is more, it's not a pleasant job.
4-Security biz: ****+
With insecurity, there is a growing market for security agencies and body guards. No large amount of money required but this market is often monopolized by retired police officers.
5-Home desk equipment: ****
Paid work will disappear in the most developed countries. Individuals will work as consultants, suppliers of services or as shareholders. It means that we shall observe the starting of a new market dedicated to the furniture's for home working people.
6-Cultural shows and museums: ****-
According to the trend in tourism this sector could be also very profitable: Nevertheless it needs some special skills.
7-Fine food: ***+
In the fine food retailer or restaurant business, you can expect a fast development. Of course tourists have to eat and with the higher level of education and well being, more and more customers will swift from the fast food to fine shops and restaurants.
As old and beautiful objects become more and more scarce, the antique shops will thrive in the next years. Better educated people like to buy scarce and beautiful furniture's rather than to get the cheap stuff sold in large stores. Nevertheless, be aware that an antique shop could require a large amount of money for the starting.
These advanced sectors could be rated with five stars but only people with a scientific background can take advantage of them.
Go to www.foresight.org . Click on "Nanotechnology" then click on "For a general reader" and finally on "Unbounding the future". There is a good free book about this advanced domain.
Go to www.bio.org . Click on "About bio" and then on "Guide to biotechnology". You will find here a full survey about all the economical applications of biotechnology.
As for genetics, there is maybe a niche for small laboratories but once again you need a good expertise or a leading partner.
13-Ecological biz: **+
There are maybe some opportunities in the southern countries. In developed countries, many business have already invested in this domain: As a result the Thames river is more clean today than it was fifty years ago.
These new technologies have a bright future. If you are located in the Pacific area or in a country with large sea-shore, it could be fruitful to think about the seaweeds. Of course, it needs some specific knowledge's but it can be a pleasant and profitable business.
Go to www.kentuckyamerican.com . Enter in clicking under the seeds icon and then click on "Up date GMO". This web site gives a short survey of the advantages of GMO.
Go to www.noamkelp.com . Click on "Seaweeds field guide". This site shortly describes all the opportunities offered by the marine crops of seaweeds and other algeas.
Go to : http://keoz6.com/ Description: Science Vertical Portal
-Water systems: **
Due to massive deforestation in the third world, the problem of water supply will be a serious threat in the entire North Africa and Middle East region, as well as in part of Central Asia. There are long range opportunities in light and manual pumps and systems.
With the extend of leisure, Sport articles should represent a growing market. On the other hand, elevation in education levels could favor individual sports rather than collective such as soccer's or base ball.
On the decrease:
18-Classical Agriculture: **
Except the vineyards producing fine wines and except some very specific and expansive products, you have better to not invest in agriculture.
19-Raw materials: ***
Except for gems, gold and diamonds, we shall use less and less raw materials. We shall use substitutes and new artificial resources base.
GMO's, seaweed cultures and new bio technologies should enable us to replace meat as food and to definitively shut down breeding farms and slaughter houses that dishonor the idea that we have, at least here, of ecology and ethics.
Go to the university of central arkansas and its small business advancement national center: www.sbaer.uca.edu . Click on industry profiles. You will find 34 surveys about different branches of business with a complete description of their markets, threats and opportunities.
It could give you an ultimate help for having your business idea!
The sector rating guide is based on the forecasts about the world situation in 2030. It gives a rough appreciation about the future of 20 main sectors.
Taking in account the expected advances in well being, education and knowledge, it recommends to mainly focus on education, tourism, and services for aged and security.
Cobotic, nanotechnologies, bio technologies, genetics, seaweeds, GMO can offer bright opportunities for skilled people.
Our purpose is also to stimulate your creativity. You have to get your business idea by the end of this course!
DO IT YOURSELF
You must have your business idea before the next working station. It shall be a validation course for your idea.
Read or revise again FW3 and take the time to organize some creative sessions!
Click on Contact